Seismic Evaluation Based on Poisson Hidden Markov Models—The Case of Central and South America

Evangelia Georgakopoulou, Theodoros M. Tsapanos, Andreas Makrides, Emmanuel Scordilis, Alex Karagrigoriou (), Alexandra Papadopoulou and Vassilios Karastathis
Additional contact information
Evangelia Georgakopoulou: School of Geology, Department of Geophysics, Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Theodoros M. Tsapanos: School of Geology, Department of Geophysics, Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Andreas Makrides: Department of Statistics and Actuarial-Financial Mathematics, Lab of Statistics and Data Analysis, University of the Aegean, 83200 Samos, Greece
Emmanuel Scordilis: School of Geology, Department of Geophysics, Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Alex Karagrigoriou: Department of Statistics and Insurance Science, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, Greece
Alexandra Papadopoulou: Department of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Vassilios Karastathis: National Observatory of Athens, Institute of Geodynamics, Lofos Nymfon, Thissio, 11851 Athens, Greece

Stats, 2024, vol. 7, issue 3, 1-16

Abstract: A study of earthquake seismicity is undertaken over the areas of Central and South America, the tectonics of which are of great interest. The whole territory is divided into 10 seismic zones based on some seismotectonic characteristics, as in previously published studies. The earthquakes used in the present study are extracted from the catalogs of the International Seismological Center, cover the period of 1900–2021, and are restricted to shallow depths (≤60 km) and a magnitude M ≥ 4.5 . Fore- and aftershocks are removed according to Reasenberg’s technique. The paper confines itself to the evaluation of earthquake occurrence probabilities in the seismic zones covering parts of Central and South America, and we implement the hidden Markov model (HMM) and apply the EM algorithm.

Keywords: earthquake hazard; earthquake occurrence probability; stochastic models; Poisson procedure; hidden Markov process; EM algorithm; Central and South America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/7/3/47/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2571-905X/7/3/47/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jstats:v:7:y:2024:i:3:p:47-792:d:1440758

Access Statistics for this article

Stats is currently edited by Mrs. Minnie Li

More articles in Stats from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().