Reliability Assessment via Combining Data from Similar Systems

Jianping Hao and Mochao Pei ()
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Jianping Hao: Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University of PLA, Shijiazhuang 050003, China
Mochao Pei: Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University of PLA, Shijiazhuang 050003, China

Stats, 2025, vol. 8, issue 2, 1-25

Abstract: In operational testing contexts, testers face dual challenges of constrained timeframes and limited resources, both of which impede the generation of reliability test data. To address this issue, integrating data from similar systems with test data can effectively expand data sources. This study proposes a systematic approach wherein the mission of the system under test (SUT) is decomposed to identify candidate subsystems for data combination. A phylogenetic tree representation is constructed for subsystem analysis and subsequently mapped to a mixed-integer programming (MIP) model, enabling efficient computation of similarity factors. A reliability assessment model that combines data from similar subsystems is established. The similarity factor is regarded as a covariate, and the regression relationship between it and the subsystem failure-time distribution is established. The joint posterior distribution of regression coefficients is derived using Bayesian theory, which are then sampled via the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) algorithm to obtain reliability estimates. Numerical case studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing approaches, yielding more robust similarity factors and higher accuracy in reliability assessments.

Keywords: operational test; reliability assessment; Bayesian theory; similarity factor (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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