Mission Reliability Assessment for the Multi-Phase Data in Operational Testing

Jianping Hao and Mochao Pei ()
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Jianping Hao: Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University of PLA, Shijiazhuang 050003, China
Mochao Pei: Shijiazhuang Campus, Army Engineering University of PLA, Shijiazhuang 050003, China

Stats, 2025, vol. 8, issue 3, 1-27

Abstract: Traditional methods for mission reliability assessment under operational testing conditions exhibit some limitations. They include coarse modeling granularity, significant parameter estimation biases, and inadequate adaptability for handling heterogeneous test data. To address these challenges, this study establishes an assessment framework using a vehicular missile launching system (VMLS) as a case study. The framework constructs phase-specific reliability block diagrams based on mission profiles and establishes mappings between data types and evaluation models. The framework integrates the maximum entropy criterion with reliability monotonic decreasing constraints, develops a covariate-embedded Bayesian data fusion model, and proposes a multi-path weight adjustment assessment method. Simulation and physical testing demonstrate that compared with conventional methods, the proposed approach shows superior accuracy and precision in parameter estimation. It enables mission reliability assessment under practical operational testing constraints while providing methodological support to overcome the traditional assessment paradigm that overemphasizes performance verification while neglecting operational capability development.

Keywords: mission reliability assessment; test and evaluation; Bayesian theory; operational testing; heterogeneous data fusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C10 C11 C14 C15 C16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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