The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration

Yuquan W. Zhang, Jianhong E. Mu, Mark Musumba, Bruce McCarl, Xiaokun Gu, Yuanfei Zhou, Zhengwei Cao and Qiang Li
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Yuquan W. Zhang: School of Agriculture and Biology, Institute of New Rural Development, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Jianhong E. Mu: Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
Mark Musumba: Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
Xiaokun Gu: China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Yuanfei Zhou: School of Agriculture and Biology, Institute of New Rural Development, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Zhengwei Cao: School of Agriculture and Biology, Institute of New Rural Development, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Qiang Li: School of Agriculture and Biology, Institute of New Rural Development, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: A prominent agricultural adaptation to climate change consists in shifting crop mixes toward the poles or upward in elevation. This paper examines the extent to which climate factors have shifted regional crop mixes in China and forecasts how future crop mixes might change under selected climate scenarios. Using a data set that provides planted area shares for each crop in each mainland Chinese province from 2001 to 2013, we employ a fractional multinomial logit (FMLOGIT) model to examine the influence of climate on regional crop mixes under historical as well as future climate conditions. Results show that temperature increases are projected to raise the incidence of wheat and tubers while reducing that for rice and maize, which is conventional food security crops. Moreover, cash crops such as vegetables and orchards and fiber-producing crops will increase, whereas oil-bearing crops and specialty crops will decrease. This paper is the first of its kind to examine climate impacts on the regional portfolio of crop mixes across Mainland China. The findings have important implications for foreseeing needed efforts to maintain food production in the face of future climate change and pointing out cases where adaptation efforts may be desirable.

Keywords: climate change; fractional multinomial logit model; crop mix land use; food production in China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:10:p:3757-:d:176537

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