Development of an Improved Model to Evaluate Vulnerability in Spring Wheat under Climate Change in Inner Mongolia

Dongliang Fan, Feiyun Yang, Zhihua Pan, Xiaoyun Su, Yuying Pan, Guolin Han, Jialin Wang, Dong Wu and Zhiqiang Dong
Additional contact information
Dongliang Fan: China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China
Feiyun Yang: China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China
Zhihua Pan: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Xiaoyun Su: College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan 430070, China
Yuying Pan: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Guolin Han: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Jialin Wang: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Dong Wu: College of Applied Meterology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Zhiqiang Dong: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 12, 1-15

Abstract: Climate change has had a significant impact on agricultural production. It is important to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change. The previous methods for evaluating vulnerability are inconsiderate and unrealistic. This paper proposes an improved vulnerability assessment method, introduces the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model to evaluate vulnerability, and uses spring wheat, in Inner Mongolia, China, as an example for evaluating the vulnerability of spring wheat under climate change. The results show that, from 1996 to 2015, the adaptability to climate change of spring wheat production, in Inner Mongolia, increased, and its sensitivity to climate change decreased. That is to say, that climatic conditions have a negative impact on spring wheat, and adaptation measures have a positive impact on spring wheat. From 1996 to 2009, the vulnerability of spring wheat production in Inner Mongolia showed a very significant increasing trend, while showing a significant downward trend during 2009–2015, which is consistent with the actual situation. The improved vulnerability assessment method can reflect the actual impact of climatic conditions on agricultural production. We expect that the new vulnerability assessment method can provide a theoretical basis for studying the impact of climate change on agricultural production.

Keywords: climate change; vulnerability; APSIM-wheat model; spring wheat (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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