Population-Based Simulation of Urban Growth: The Italian Case Study

Claudia Cosentino, Federico Amato and Beniamino Murgante
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Claudia Cosentino: School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, 85100 Potenza, Italy
Federico Amato: Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
Beniamino Murgante: School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, 85100 Potenza, Italy

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 12, 1-21

Abstract: Land take is one of the most studied phenomena in land use science. The increased attention to the issue of urban growth from both scientists and decision makers is justified by the dramatic negative effects on land use caused by anthropogenic activities. Within this context, researchers have developed and explored several models to forecast land use changes, some of which establish excellent scenario-based predictions of urban growth. However, there is still a lack of operative and user-friendly tools to be integrated into standard urban planning procedures. This paper explores the features of the recently published model FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation integrated into the GRASSGIS environment, which generates urban growth simulation based on a plethora of driving variables. Specifically, the model was applied to the case study of urbanization in the Italian national territory. Hence, the aim of this work is to analyze the importance of population dynamics within the process of urban growth. A simulation of urban growth up to the year 2035 was performed. Results show that, despite the importance given to demographic aspects when defining urban policies over the last several decades, additional factors need to be considered during planning processes to overcome the housing issues currently experienced in Italy.

Keywords: cellular automata; urban growth; GrassGIS; land use land cover changes; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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