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An Early Warning System for Oil Security in China

Qingsong Wang (), Hongrui Tang (), Xueliang Yuan (), Mansen Wang (), Hongkun Xiao () and Zhi Ma ()
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Qingsong Wang: School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Hongrui Tang: School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Xueliang Yuan: School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Mansen Wang: Medical Data Research Center, Providence Health & Services, 9205 SW Barnes Road, Portland, OR 97225, USA
Hongkun Xiao: School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China
Zhi Ma: School of Energy and Power Engineering, Shandong University, Jinan 250061, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions) factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.

Keywords: oil system security; early warning; indicator system; factor analysis; evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 O13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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