Recurrence Interval Analysis on Electricity Consumption of an Office Building in China

Lucheng Hong, Wantao Shu and Angela C. Chao
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Lucheng Hong: School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu, China
Wantao Shu: School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu, China
Angela C. Chao: School of Management and Economics, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, Jiangsu, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-15

Abstract: The energy management of office buildings has been a rising concern for owners, researchers, and energy suppliers. The volatility of power load in office buildings threatens energy consumption and risks device security. This paper investigates the load fluctuation patterns in an office building based on user data, using recurrence interval analysis for different thresholds. The recurrence intervals of volatility are fitted by stretched exponential distribution, from which the probability density function is derived. Then, the short-term and long-term memory effect on the fluctuations are learned by conditional probability density function and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, respectively. A hazard function is further established to analyze the risk estimation of load volatility and derive the value at risk (VaR). Thus, a functional relationship has been established between average recurrence interval and threshold. The methodology and analysis results addressed in this paper help to understand load fluctuation patterns and aid in the design of energy consumption strategies in office buildings. According to the results of our research, conclusions and management suggestions are provided at the end of this paper.

Keywords: office building; energy management; extreme events; recurrence interval; risk estimation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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