Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China

Jumeniyaz Seydehmet, Guang Hui Lv, Ilyas Nurmemet, Tayierjiang Aishan, Abdulla Abliz, Mamat Sawut, Abdugheni Abliz and Mamattursun Eziz
Additional contact information
Jumeniyaz Seydehmet: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Guang Hui Lv: Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Ilyas Nurmemet: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Tayierjiang Aishan: Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Abdulla Abliz: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Mamat Sawut: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Abdugheni Abliz: Institute of Ecology and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Shengli Road 666, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
Mamattursun Eziz: Key Laboratory of Lake Environment and Resources in Arid Zone and Collage of Geographical Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Xinyi Road 102, Urumqi 830054, Xinjiang China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-22

Abstract: Significant anthropogenic and biophysical changes have caused fluctuations in the soil salinization area of the Keriya Oasis in China. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) sustainability framework and Bayesian networks (BNs) were used to integrate information from anthropogenic and natural systems to model the trend of secondary soil salinization. The developed model predicted that light salinization (vegetation coverage of around 15–20%, soil salt 5–10 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term but decelerate slightly in the future, and that farmland salinization will decrease in the near term. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future. Both trends are attributed to decreased water logging, increased groundwater exploitation, and decreased ratio of evaporation/precipitation. In contrast, severe salinization (vegetation coverage of around 2%, soil salt ≥20 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term. This trend will accelerate in the future because decreased river flow will reduce the flushing of severely salinized soil crust. Anthropogenic factors have negative impacts and natural causes have positive impacts on light salinization of ecotones. In situations involving severe farmland salinization, anthropogenic factors have persistent negative impacts.

Keywords: arid oasis; combination of modern and indigenous knowledge; Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response sustainability framework; bayesian network (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/656/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/656/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:656-:d:134066

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().