Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

Dandan Zhao, Hong S. He, Wen J. Wang, Lei Wang, Haibo Du, Kai Liu and Shengwei Zong
Additional contact information
Dandan Zhao: School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Hong S. He: School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Wen J. Wang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Lei Wang: Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China
Haibo Du: School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Kai Liu: School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China
Shengwei Zong: School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-14

Abstract: Wetlands in the mid- and high-latitudes are particularly vulnerable to environmental changes and have declined dramatically in recent decades. Climate change and human activities are arguably the most important factors driving wetland distribution changes which will have important implications for wetland ecological functions and services. We analyzed the importance of driving variables for wetland distribution and investigated the relative importance of climatic factors and human activity factors in driving historical wetland distribution changes. We predicted wetland distribution changes under climate change and human activities over the 21st century using the Random Forest model in a mid- and high-latitude region of Northeast China. Climate change scenarios included three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on five general circulation models (GCMs) downloaded from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). The three scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5) predicted radiative forcing to peak at 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 W/m 2 by the 2100s, respectively. Our results showed that the variables with high importance scores were agricultural population proportion, warmness index, distance to water body, coldness index, and annual mean precipitation; climatic variables were given higher importance scores than human activity variables on average. Average predicted wetland area among three emission scenarios were 340,000 ha, 123,000 ha, and 113,000 ha for the 2040s, 2070s, and 2100s, respectively. Average change percent in predicted wetland area among three periods was greatest under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario followed by RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios, which were 78%, 64%, and 55%, respectively. Losses in predicted wetland distribution were generally around agricultural lands and expanded continually from the north to the whole region over time, while the gains were mostly associated with grasslands and water in the most southern region. In conclusion, climatic factors had larger effects than human activity factors on historical wetland distribution changes and wetland distributions were predicted to decline remarkably over time under climate change scenarios. Our findings have important implications for wetland resource management and restoration because predictions of future wetland changes are needed for wetlands management planning.

Keywords: wetland distribution; climate change; human activities; mid- and high-latitudes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/863/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/3/863/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:863-:d:136889

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().