Effects of Non-Stationarity on Flood Frequency Analysis: Case Study of the Cheongmicheon Watershed in South Korea

Sang Ug Kim, Minwoo Son, Eun-Sung Chung and Xiao Yu
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Sang Ug Kim: Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Korea
Minwoo Son: Department of Civil Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon 34134, Korea
Eun-Sung Chung: Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
Xiao Yu: Engineering School of Sustainable Infrastructure and Environment, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Due to global climate change, it is possible to experience the new trend of flood in the near future. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact of climate change on flood when establishing sustainable water resources management policy. In order to predict the future flood events, the frequency analysis is commonly applied. Traditional methods for flood frequency analysis are based on the assumption of stationarity, which is questionable under the climate change, although many techniques that are based on stationarity have been developed. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and compare all of the corresponding effects of three different data sets (observed, RCP 4.5, and 8.5), two different frequency models (stationary and non-stationary), and two different frequency analysis procedures (rainfall frequency first approach and direct discharge approach). As a result, the design flood from the observed data by the stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach can be concluded the most reasonable. Thus, the design flood from the RCP 8.5 by the non-stationary frequency model and rainfall frequency first approach should be carefully used for the establishment of flood prevention measure while considering climate change and uncertainty.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis; non-stationarity; climate change; uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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