A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting

Zonggui Yao and Chen Wang
Additional contact information
Zonggui Yao: School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China
Chen Wang: School of Information Science & Engineering, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 5, 1-33

Abstract: In the last few years, researchers have paid increasing attention to improving the accuracy of wind speed forecasting because of its vital impact on power dispatching and grid security. However, it is difficult to achieve a good forecasting performance due to the randomness and intermittency characteristics of wind speed time series. Current forecasting models based on neural network theory could adapt to various types of time series data; however, these models ignore the importance of data pre-processing and model parameter optimization, which leads to poor forecasting accuracy. In this paper, a new hybrid model is developed for short-term multi-step wind speed forecasting, which includes four modules: (1) the data pre-processing module; (2) the optimization module; (3) the hybrid nonlinear forecasting module and (4) the evaluation module. In order to estimate the forecasting ability of the proposed hybrid model, 10 min wind speed data were applied in this paper as a case study. The experimental results in six real forecasting cases indicate that the proposed hybrid model can provide not only accurate but also stable performance in terms of multi-step wind speed forecasting can be considered an effective tool in planning and dispatching for smart grids.

Keywords: wind speed multi-step forecasting; data pre-processing; modified optimization algorithm; neural networks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/5/1443/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/5/1443/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1443-:d:144780

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().