Quantifying the Climate Impact of the US Policy Choices Using an Economic and Earth System Model

Shili Yang, Changxin Liu, Wenjie Dong, Jieming Chou, Di Tian, Ting Wei and Yuan Tian
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Shili Yang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Changxin Liu: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Wenjie Dong: Atmospheric Science School, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510000, China
Jieming Chou: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Di Tian: State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Hangzhou 310012, China
Ting Wei: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Yuan Tian: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 6, 1-11

Abstract: Climate policy plays an important role in keeping global temperature rises below the target of 1.5–2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and technological innovations are key to determining the effectiveness of climate policy. In this study, we investigated the climate impact of the USA’s policy choices using the enforced multi-factor regional climate and economy system (EMRICES,) and the Earth system model from Beijing Normal University (BNU-ESM). Three emission scenarios were designed based on the assumption of whether or not the US follows its proposed nationally determined contribution (NDC) and makes use of technological innovations. The results showed that if the US does not implement the NDC and had no technological progress, there would be an extra 176.7 Gt of cumulative carbon emissions by the end of the 21st century compared to that of all the countries that follow their NDC. The additional emissions would lead to an increase of 62 ppm in CO 2 concentration and a 0.4 °C increase in global warming by 2100. It would also lead to a 2% loss for the US and Chinese economies, compared to the NDC scenario. The Earth system model results also show that even if all the countries follow the DNC, it would be difficult to keep the temperature from increasing less than 1.5 °C. This study implies that the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and their refusal to adopt technological progress is not conducive to achieving the 1.5 °C goal, and more stringent emission reduction targets or technology innovations would be required for the world to control global warming to a level below 1.5 °C.

Keywords: climate policy; Paris Agreement; Earth system model; economic model; climate impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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