Decarbonization Pathways for International Maritime Transport: A Model-Based Policy Impact Assessment

Ronald A. Halim, Lucie Kirstein, Olaf Merk and Luis M. Martinez
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Ronald A. Halim: International Transport Forum/OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France
Lucie Kirstein: International Transport Forum/OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France
Olaf Merk: International Transport Forum/OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France
Luis M. Martinez: International Transport Forum/OECD, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris CEDEX 16, France

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 7, 1-30

Abstract: International shipping has finally set a target to reduce its CO 2 emission by at least 50% by 2050. Despite this positive progress, this target is still not sufficient to reach Paris Agreement goals since CO 2 emissions from international shipping could reach 17% of global emissions by 2050 if no measures are taken. A key factor that hampers the achievement of Paris goals is the knowledge gap in terms of what level of decarbonization it is possible to achieve using all the available technologies. This paper examines the technical possibility of achieving the 1.5° goal of the Paris Agreement and the required supporting policy measures. We project the transport demand for 6 ship types (dry bulk, container, oil tanker, gas, wet product and chemical, and general cargo) based on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD’s) global trade projection of 25 commodities. Subsequently, we test the impact of mitigation measures on CO 2 emissions until 2035 using an international freight transport and emission model. We present four possible decarbonization pathways which combine all the technologies available today. We found that an 82–95% reduction in CO 2 emissions could be possible by 2035. Finally, we examine the barriers and the relevant policy measures to advance the decarbonization of international maritime transport.

Keywords: international shipping; maritime transport; decarbonization; Paris Agreement; freight transport model; policy measures; GHG emission; 1.5 degrees objective; carbon pricing; market-based measure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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