Winter Weather Anomalies and Individual Destination Choice

Martin Falk and Eva Hagsten
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Eva Hagsten: School of Social Sciences, University of Iceland, Sæmundargata 2, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-14

Abstract: Recently, several winter seasons in the European Alps have been unexpectedly warm. In the Austrian mountains, December 2015 was the warmest since weather records began, with a temperature deviation of +6.6 °C compared to the long-term average. By use of data on 6200 individual trips from the Austrian travel survey, a multinomial Logit model is employed to estimate if weather anomalies affect the choice of winter trips. A substitution for more distant trips may create additional environmental burdens, given that they require longer travels or alternative transportation modes. Estimation results reveal that the choice of a mountain destination is not yet affected by extreme winter weather conditions. The result is valid for December 2015, as well as for the total winter season 2015/2016. However, December 2015 and 2016 exhibit a separate development with a significant increase in the likelihood of trips to non-mountains in Europe (mostly city breaks), although no traces of a direct substitution effect can be found. Younger and older people, as well as women, are less likely to go on a winter trip to the mountains. Residents with a tertiary degree and students are more interested in this, as well as large travel groups.

Keywords: travel decision; winter destinations; abnormal weather; leisure travel survey; multinomial Logit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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