Scenario-Based Simulation of Tianjin City Using a Cellular Automata–Markov Model

Ruci Wang, Hao Hou and Yuji Murayama
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Ruci Wang: Graduate School of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
Hao Hou: Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Yuhangtang Road No. 2318, Hangzhou 311121, China
Yuji Murayama: Faculty of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba,1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-20

Abstract: Rapid urbanization is occurring throughout China, especially in megacities. Using a land use model to obtain future land use/cover conditions is an essential method to prevent chaotic urban sprawl and imbalanced development. This study utilized historical Landsat images to create land use/cover maps to predict the land use/cover changes of Tianjin city in 2025 and 2035. The cellular automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model was applied in the simulation under three scenarios: the environmental protection scenario (EPS), crop protection scenario (CPS), and spontaneous scenario (SS). The model achieved a kappa value of 86.6% with a figure of merit (FoM) of 12.18% when compared to the empirical land use/cover map in 2015. The results showed that the occupation of built-up areas increased from 29.13% in 2015 to 38.68% (EPS), 36.18% (CPS), and 47.94% (SS) in 2035. In this context, current urbanization would bring unprecedented stress on agricultural resources and forest ecosystems, which could be attenuated by implementing protection policies along with decelerating urban expansion. The findings provide valuable information for urban planners to achieve sustainable development goals.

Keywords: geographical information science; land use and land cover; modeling; scenarios; urban growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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