An Analysis of Hazardous Chemical Accidents in China between 2006 and 2017

Laijun Zhao, Ying Qian, Qing-Mi Hu, Ran Jiang, Meiting Li and Xulei Wang
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Laijun Zhao: Sino-US Global Logistics Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Ying Qian: School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China
Qing-Mi Hu: Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Ran Jiang: Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Meiting Li: China Institute for Urban Governance, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China
Xulei Wang: College of Economics and Management, Qingdao Agriculture University, Qingdao 266109, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: From the perspective of characteristics and causes, probability and forecast, and safety management evaluation, this paper analyzes 3974 hazardous chemical casualty accidents that occurred between 2006 and 2017 in China. The trends, monthly and hourly distributions, lifecycles, chemical and accident types, and the direct and indirect causes of casualty accidents are analyzed first. To estimate the probability of casualty accidents, the Poisson regression model is employed. The time series model is developed to forecast the number of casualty accidents. The safety management of hazardous chemicals is evaluated based on an inverted U-shaped curve that fits the relationship between the number of casualty accidents and petrochemical industry outputs. Moreover, measures for improving the safety management of hazardous chemicals are provided based on the analysis, forecast, and evaluation. The results show that the probability of 200–600 casualty accidents occurring per year in China is 59.10%. Sixteen of thirty provinces are identified as having better safety management with regard to hazardous chemicals.

Keywords: hazardous chemical accidents; safety management evaluation; poisson regression analysis; Kuznets curve; time series model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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