Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability Approach for Drought Analysis in South Korea Using 28 GCMs

Jang Hyun Sung, Eun-Sung Chung and Shamsuddin Shahid
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Jang Hyun Sung: Han River Flood Control Office, Ministry of Environment, Seoul 06501, Korea
Eun-Sung Chung: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
Shamsuddin Shahid: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor Bahru 81310, Malaysia

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-16

Abstract: This study developed a Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability (R–R–V) approach that aggregates the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This approach was used to analyze the characteristics of droughts for the current (1976–2005) and the future (2010–2099) climates. The future climate data obtained from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was divided into three general periods: Future 1: 2010–2039, Future 2: 2040–2069; and Future 3: 2070–2099. As a result, aggregation R–R–V representing water availability would increase during Future 1, and then gradually decrease until the end of the century. The frequencies of future drought events for Future 2 and Future 3 were similar to the current frequency, while the durations will be longer and the severity will be higher at most locations during Future 3. Thus, the mean of R–R–V over South Korea is expected to decrease, except for Future 1, and the spatial variability of R–R–V is expected to increase. In the end, the changes in the mean and variance of rainfall and temperature would lead to a decrease in the mean and increase in the spatial variation of sustainability in South Korea. This approach and its results can be used to establish a long-term drought strategy for regions where the risk of future drought is expected to increase.

Keywords: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), drought analysis; Reliability–Resiliency–Vulnerability (R–R–V) approach; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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