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Analyzing the Impact of GDP on CO 2 Emissions and Forecasting Africa’s Total CO 2 Emissions with Non-Assumption Driven Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory

Bismark Ameyaw () and Li Yao ()
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Bismark Ameyaw: School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Ave, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China
Li Yao: School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Ave, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-23

Abstract: The amount of total carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions emitted into the environment threatens both human and global ecosystems. Based on this background, this study first analyzed the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and CO 2 emissions in five West African countries covering the period of 2007–2014 based on a panel data model. Our causality analysis revealed that there exists a unidirectional causality running from GDP to CO 2 emissions. Second, after establishing the nexus between GDP and CO 2 emissions, we forecast Africa’s CO 2 emissions with the aim of projecting future consumption levels. With the quest to achieve climate change targets, realistic and high accuracy total CO 2 emissions projections are key to drawing and implementing realizable environmentally-friendly energy policies. Therefore, we propose a non-assumption driven forecasting technique for long-term total CO 2 emissions. We implement our bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) sequential algorithm formulation for both the testing stage (2006–2014) and forecasting stage (2015–2020) on Africa’s aggregated data as well as the five selected West African countries employed herein. We then propose policy recommendations based on the direction of causality between CO 2 emissions and GDP, and our CO 2 emissions projections in order to guide policymakers to implement realistic and sustainable policy targets for West Africa and Africa as a whole.

Keywords: CO 2 emissions; bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM); Africa; West Africa; diversification of energy sources; climate change; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 O13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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