Exploring City Development Modes under the Dual Control of Water Resources and Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions: The Case of Beijing, China

Yan Wang, Weihua Xiao, Yicheng Wang, Baodeng Hou, Heng Yang, Xuelei Zhang, Mingzhi Yang and Lishan Zhu
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Yan Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Weihua Xiao: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yicheng Wang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Baodeng Hou: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Heng Yang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Xuelei Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Mingzhi Yang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Lishan Zhu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-16

Abstract: Water and energy are basic resources for urban development. It is of extreme importance to balance economic development, water and energy security, and environmental sustainability at the city level. Although many studies have focused on energy-related CO 2 emissions or water resources, individually, in relation to socioeconomic development, few studies have considered water and energy-related CO 2 emissions as synchronous limiting factors. Here, taking Beijing as an example, a partial least squares STIRPAT model—a method that combines partial least squares with the STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model—was used to determine the main driving factors of water use and energy-related CO 2 emissions at the regional scale from 1996 to 2016. The empirical results showed that the population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), urbanization level, technology level, and service level, are all important factors that influence the total water use and energy-related CO 2 emissions. Additionally, eight scenarios were established to explore suitable development modes for future years. Consequently, a medium growth rate in socioeconomic status and population, and a high growth rate in the technology and service level, were found to be the most appropriate development modes. This scenario would result in a total water use of 4432.13 million m 3 and energy-related CO 2 emissions of 173.64 million tons in 2030. The results provide a new perspective for decision makers to explore suitable measures for simultaneously conserving water resources and reducing energy-related CO 2 emissions in the context of urban development.

Keywords: partial least squares STIRPAT model; water resources; energy-related CO 2 emissions; scenario analysis; Beijing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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