Rescaled Statistics and Wavelet Analysis on Agricultural Drought Disaster Periodic Fluctuations in China from 1950 to 2016

Qian Wang, Yangyang Liu, Linjing Tong, Weihong Zhou, Xiaoyu Li and Jianlong Li
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Qian Wang: Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Yangyang Liu: Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Linjing Tong: Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Weihong Zhou: Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Xiaoyu Li: Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
Jianlong Li: Department of Ecology, School of Life Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

Sustainability, 2018, vol. 10, issue 9, 1-12

Abstract: An agricultural drought disaster was analyzed with the new insight of rescaled statistics (R/S) and wavelet analysis in this study. The results showed that: (1) the Hurst index of the agricultural disaster area, the inundated area of agricultural drought disaster, and the grain loss was 0.821, 0.874, and 0.953, respectively, indicating that the process of the agricultural drought disaster had stronger positive continuity during the study period; (2) based on the Morlet analysis of the agricultural disaster area, the inundated area of the agricultural drought disaster, and the grain loss of China from 1950 to 2016, the time series of the agricultural drought had multiple time scale features with the periodic variation on a large scale containing the periodic variation on a small scale; and (3) in the last 67 years, the strong wavelet energy spectrum of the agricultural disaster area, the inundated area of the agricultural drought disaster, and the grain loss was at the time scale of ≈22–32 years, ≈24–32 years, and ≈25–32 years, respectively. In addition, the first major period in the agricultural drought disaster area, the inundated area of agricultural drought disaster, and the grain loss had average periods of approximately 16 years, 16 years, and 18 years, respectively.

Keywords: R/S; Morlet analysis; agricultural drought disaster; periodic oscillation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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