Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton

Muhammad Hadi Saputra and Han Soo Lee
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Muhammad Hadi Saputra: Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8529, Hiroshima, Japan
Han Soo Lee: Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, 1-5-1 Kagamiyama, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8529, Hiroshima, Japan

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-16

Abstract: Land use and land cover (LULC) form a baseline thematic map for monitoring, resource management, and planning activities and facilitate the development of strategies to balance conservation, conflicting uses, and development pressures. In this study, changes in LULC in North Sumatra, Indonesia, are simulated and predicted using an artificial-neural-network-based cellular automaton (ANN-CA) model. Five criteria (altitude, slope, aspect, distance from the road, and soil type) are used as exploratory data in the learning process of the ANN-CA model to determine their impacts on LULC changes between 1990 and 2000; among the criteria, altitude and distance from the road have strong impacts. Comparison between the predicted and the real LULC maps for 2010 illustrates high agreement, with a Kappa index of 0.83 and a percentage of correctness of 87.28%. Then, the ANN-CA model is applied to predict LULC changes in 2050 and 2070. The LULC predictions for 2050 and 2070 demonstrate high increases in plantation area of more than 4%. Meanwhile, forest and crop area are projected to decrease by approximately 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively, by 2050. By 2070, forest and crop areas will decrease by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, indicating human influences on LULC changes from forest and cropland to plantations. This study illustrates that the simulation of LULC changes using the ANN-CA model can produce reliable predictions for future LULC.

Keywords: land use; land cover; cellular automata; artificial neural network; LULC prediction; North Sumatra; Indonesia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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