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Prices of Mexican Wholesale Electricity Market: An Application of Alpha-Stable Regression

Roman Aguilar, Jose Antonio Marmolejo-Saucedo and Brenda Retana-Blanco
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Jose Antonio Marmolejo-Saucedo: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Panamericana, Augusto Rodin 498, Mexico, Mexico City 03920, Mexico
Brenda Retana-Blanco: Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Anáhuac Mexico, Av. Universidad Anáhuac 46, Lomas Anáhuac, Huixquilucan, Estado de Mexico 52786, Mexico

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-14

Abstract: This paper presents a proposal to estimate prices in the Mexican Wholesale Electric Market, which began operations in February 2016, which is why it moves from a scheme with a single bidder to a competitive market. There are particularities in the case of the Mexican market, the main one being the gradual increase in the number of competitors observed until now and, on the other hand, the geographic and technical characteristics of the electric power generation. The observed prices to date show great fluctuations in the observed data due to diverse aspects; among the stems we can mention the own seasonality of the demand of electrical energy, the availability of fuel, the problems of congestion in the electrical network, as well as other risks such as natural hazards. For the above, it is relevant in a market context to have a price estimation as accurate as possible for the decision-making of supply and demand. This paper proposes a methodology for the generation of electricity price estimation through the application of stable alpha regressions, since the behavior of the electric market has shown the presence of heavy tails in its price distribution.

Keywords: electricity markets; alpha-stable distribution; alpha-stable regression; electricity prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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