Stochastic Analysis of Embodied Carbon Dioxide Emissions Considering Variability of Construction Sites

Dongyoun Lee, Goune Kang, Chulu Nam, Hunhee Cho and Kyung-In Kang
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Dongyoun Lee: School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Goune Kang: Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, 283 Goyang-daero, Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang, Gyeonggi 10223, Korea
Chulu Nam: Deajeon-Sejong-Chungnam Headquarters, Korea Electric Power Corporation, 170, Songchonnam-ro 11beon-gil, Dong-gu, Daejeon 34537, Korea
Hunhee Cho: School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea
Kyung-In Kang: School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 15, 1-12

Abstract: The current method of estimating CO 2 emissions during the construction phase does not consider the variability that can occur in actual work. Therefore, this study aims at probabilistic CO 2 estimation dealing with the statistical characteristics in activity data of building construction work, focused on concrete pouring work and based on field data. The probabilistically estimated CO 2 emissions have some differences from CO 2 emissions measured by current deterministic methods. The results revealed that the minimum difference was 11.4%, and the maximum difference was 132.7%. This study also used Monte Carlo simulations to derive information on a probability model of CO 2 emissions. Results of the analysis revealed that there is a risk of underestimating emissions because the amount of emissions was estimated at a level that exceeds the 95% confidence interval of the simulation results. In addition, the probability that CO 2 emissions using the measured activities data were less than the estimated CO 2 emissions using the bill of quantity was 73.2% in the probability distribution model.

Keywords: CO 2 emissions; construction phase; stochastic analysis; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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