A Network Modelling Approach to Flight Delay Propagation: Some Empirical Evidence from China

Weiwei Wu, Haoyu Zhang, Tao Feng and Frank Witlox
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Weiwei Wu: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu, China
Haoyu Zhang: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu, China
Tao Feng: Department of the Built Environment, Eindhoven University of Technology, 5600MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands
Frank Witlox: College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, Jiangsu, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 16, 1-16

Abstract: This paper examines flight delay propagation in air transport networks. Delays add to additional costs, inefficiencies, and unsustainable development. An integrated flight-based susceptible-infected-susceptible (FSIS) model was developed to analyse the flight delay process from a network-based perspective. The probability of flight delay propagation was determined using a translog model. The model was applied to an airline network consisting of thirty-three routes involving three airlines. The results show that the propagation probability is network-related and varies across different routes. The variation is related to the flight frequencies at airports, route distances, scheduled buffer times, and the propagated delay time. Whereas buffer time has a greater impact on smaller airports, flight movement has a greater impact on larger airports. Having a better understanding of how delays happen can help the development of strategies to avoid them. This will lead to less costs, higher efficiencies, and more sustainable airport and airline development.

Keywords: air transport network; flight delay propagation; susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model; delay propagation probability; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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