Drought Risk Assessment and Estimation in Vulnerable Eco-Regions of China: Under the Background of Climate Change

Jieming Chou, Tian Xian, Runze Zhao, Yuan Xu, Fan Yang and Mingyang Sun
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Jieming Chou: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Tian Xian: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Runze Zhao: Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing 100875, China
Yuan Xu: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Fan Yang: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Mingyang Sun: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 16, 1-14

Abstract: Drought risk analysis can help improve disaster management techniques, thereby reducing potential drought risk under the impacts of climate change. This study analyses observed and model-simulated spatial patterns of changes in drought risk in vulnerable eco-regions in China during 1988–2017 and 2020–2050 using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. To perform a risk assessment and estimation of a drought disaster, three subsystems—namely hazard, vulnerability and exposure—are assessed in terms of the effects of climate change since the middle of the 21st century: (i) Hazards, represented by climate anomalies related to the drought process, such as changes in rainfall averages, temperature averages and evaporation averages; (ii) vulnerability, encompassing land use and mutual transposition between them; (iii) exposure, consisting of socioeconomic, demographic, and farming. The results demonstrated that high hazards continue to be located in the arid zone, high vulnerability levels occur in the Junggar Basin and Inner Mongolia Plateau, and high exposure levels occur Loess Plateau and southern coastal area. In this way, the results provide exhaustive measures for proactive drought risk management and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: drought; risk assessment; risk estimate; hazard; vulnerability; exposure (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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