A Study on the Arable Land Demand for Food Security in China

Aiqi Chen, Huaxiang He, Jin Wang, Mu Li, Qingchun Guan and Jinmin Hao
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Aiqi Chen: College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Huaxiang He: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Jin Wang: College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Mu Li: College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Qingchun Guan: College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Jinmin Hao: College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 17, 1-15

Abstract: Food security is the basis of social stability and development. Maintaining sufficient amounts of arable land is essential for China’s food security. In this paper, we consider the relationship between arable land demand to grain demand and production capacity. The changes in national population, grain production, and consumption from 2000 to 2015 are analyzed. Then, we forecast the respective possible changes in the future and accordingly forecast the arable land demand in different possible situations. The results show that the pressure to maintain sufficient amounts of arable land in 2030 may be greater than that in 2040.The higher pressure is due to larger population and lower production capacity. To ensure food security in China, we insist on maintaining 120 million ha of arable land, the “red line” for food security, and improve the arable land productivity to ensure domestic production and self-sufficiency. In addition, residents should be guided to cultivate sound food consumption habits in order to control per capita grain demand. Lastly, we should also make full use of international resources and markets to relieve the pressure on domestic resources and environments.

Keywords: arable land demand; grain demand; grain production; food security; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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