Quantitative Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in Southeast Gansu Province, Northwest China

Zhaoqi Zeng, Wenxiang Wu, Zhaolei Li, Yang Zhou and Han Huang
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Zhaoqi Zeng: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Wenxiang Wu: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Zhaolei Li: National Engineering Laboratory for Efficient Utilization of Soil and Fertilizer Resources, Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment in Universities of Shandong, College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Yang Zhou: Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Han Huang: School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 19, 1-21

Abstract: The sector that suffers the most directly from drought is agriculture, and drought is expected to become more serious in the context of global warming. Effectively evaluating the agricultural drought risk is fundamental to establishing present water resource management and guaranteeing food security. Therefore, southeast Gansu province was selected for this study as a typical region for which to analyze drought trends and assess agricultural drought risk. Trends for the period from 1967 to 2018 were analyzed at 21 locations by using the Mann–Kendall method, and drought was quantified by using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Spatial characteristics of the agricultural drought risk that emphasized the combined role of hazards and vulnerability were investigated at a 1-km grid scale. Results showed that the annual SPEI exhibited a nonsignificant increasing trend from 1967 to 1990 but that after 1990, the SPEI showed a steep downward trend of 0.1 per decade. The drying trend from 1990 to 2018 was mainly attributed to a significant increase in the reference evapotranspiration. Approximately 16.1% of the agricultural areas are exposed to an extremely high risk and 42.2% are exposed to high risk of drought. Moreover, 56.7% of the extremely high-risk agricultural areas are located in the Longnan region, which strongly suggests that more attention must be paid to preparedness for and mitigation of drought in the Longnan region. This study offers a scientific approach to evaluating the risk of agricultural drought in dry agricultural regions.

Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; Mann–Kendall trend analysis; assessment; agricultural drought risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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