An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal

Carina Almeida, Tiago B. Ramos, João Sobrinho, Ramiro Neves and Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira
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Carina Almeida: Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
Tiago B. Ramos: Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
João Sobrinho: Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
Ramiro Neves: Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira: Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Instituto Superior Técnico; Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: This paper describes an integrated modelling approach to study water use vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean basin under different climate change projections. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) and the MOHID (from modelo hidrodinâmico ) Water model were used to evaluate the impacts of two climate scenarios (GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) on water availability in Montargil’s basin and reservoir (Portugal) during two decadal timelines (2030 and 2060). Reservoir performance metrics were estimated considering also two water demand scenarios: an average of the water demand in the last 10 years; and the largest annual demand of the last 10 years. The SWAT model results showed a future decrease of inflows to the reservoir, with its volumetric reliability decreasing from 100% in the historical simulation to about 60–70% in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate scenario and 40–50% in the GFDL-ESM2M climate scenario. The time reliability also decreased to less than 30%, while the resiliency for the water demand decreased to an average 20–35% for both climate scenarios. These impacts indicate the importance of the managing systems in an integrative mode to prevent water resources reduction in the region.

Keywords: integrating modelling; climate change; water availability; vulnerability; Montargil; basin; reservoir (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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