Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin

Peng Qi, Guangxin Zhang, Yi Jun Xu, Zhikun Xia and Ming Wang
Additional contact information
Peng Qi: Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun 130102, China
Guangxin Zhang: Key Laboratory of Wetland Ecology and Environment, Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.4888, Shengbei Street, Changchun 130102, China
Yi Jun Xu: School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
Zhikun Xia: Institute of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, No.74, Xuefu Road, Harbin 150080, China
Ming Wang: Institute of Meteorology in Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150080, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 20, 1-21

Abstract: Global water resources are affected by climate change as never before. However, it is still unclear how water resources in high latitudes respond to climate change. In this study, the water resource data for 2021–2050 in the Naoli River Basin, a high-latitude basin in China, are calculated by using the SWAT-Modflow Model and future climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show a decreasing trend. When compared to the present, future streamflow is predicted to decrease by 2.73 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and by 1.51 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 8.16 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and by 0.56 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, groundwater recharge is expected to decrease by −1.79 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and −0.75 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and by −0.62 × 10 8 m 3 in 2021–2035 and −0.12 × 10 8 m 3 in 2036–2050 in the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. The worst impact of climate change on water resources in the basin could be frequent occurrences of extremely wet and dry conditions. In the RCP 4.5 scenario, the largest annual streamflow is predicted to be almost 14 times that of the smallest one, while it is 18 times for the groundwater recharge. Meanwhile, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, inter-annual fluctuations are expected to be more severe. The difference is 17 times between the largest annual streamflow and the lowest annual one. Moreover, the value is 19 times between the largest and lowest groundwater recharge. This indicates a significant increase in conflict between water use and supply.

Keywords: climate change; groundwater-surface water; high-latitude; SWAT-Modflow (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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