Probability of Deriving a Yearly Transition Probability Matrix for Land-Use Dynamics

Shigeaki F. Hasegawa and Takenori Takada
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Shigeaki F. Hasegawa: Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, N19W8, Kita-Ku, Sapporo 060-0819, Japan
Takenori Takada: Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-Ku, Sapporo 060-0810, Japan

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 22, 1-11

Abstract: Takada’s group developed a method for estimating the yearly transition matrix by calculating the m th power roots of a transition matrix with an interval of m years. However, the probability of obtaining a yearly transition matrix with real and positive elements is unknown. In this study, empirical verification based on transition matrices from previous land-use studies and Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted to estimate the probability of obtaining an appropriate yearly transition probability matrix. In 62 transition probability matrices of previous land-use studies, 54 (87%) could provide a positive or small-negative solution. For randomly generated matrices with differing sizes or power roots, the probability of obtaining a positive or small-negative solution is low. However, the probability is relatively large for matrices with large diagonal elements, exceeding 90% in most cases. These results indicate that Takada et al.’s method is a powerful tool for analyzing land-use dynamics.

Keywords: land-use dynamics; transition probability matrix; yearly transition; power root of matrix (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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