Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China

Wei Xu, Xiaodong Ming, Yunjia Ma, Xinhang Zhang, Peijun Shi, Li Zhuo and Bingqiang Lu
Additional contact information
Wei Xu: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Xiaodong Ming: School of Civil Engineering & Geosciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
Yunjia Ma: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Xinhang Zhang: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Peijun Shi: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Li Zhuo: Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
Bingqiang Lu: Guangxi Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Nanning 530007, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-16

Abstract: Due to their complexity, hazard interactions are often neglected in current studies of multi-hazard risk assessment. As a result, the assessment results are qualitative or semi-quantitative and are difficult to use in regional risk management. In this paper, the crop loss risk due to heavy rain and strong wind in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China was quantitatively assessed, based on the joint return periods of these hazards and a vulnerability surface. The joint return period is obtained with a copula function based on the marginal distribution of each hazard. The vulnerability is fitted by considering the joint hazard intensity, the sown area of crops, elevation, and GDP per capita. The results show that counties with a high value of joint hazard probability are clustered in the southeast coastal area and that the value gradually decreases from south to north and from east to west. The multi-hazard risk has a similar pattern, with a large value in the southeast coastal area and a low value in the northwest. The proposed method can be used for quantitative assessment of multi-hazard risk, and the results can be used for regional disaster risk management and planning.

Keywords: multi-hazard; copula; joint return period; vulnerability surface; crop loss risk; Yangtze River Delta region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/922/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/3/922/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:3:p:922-:d:204995

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().