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Evaluation on the Sustainability of Urban Public Pension System in China

Qing Zhao () and Haijie Mi ()
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Qing Zhao: Center for Social Security Studies, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Haijie Mi: Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security, Beijing 10029, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-20

Abstract: Against the background of population aging and economic downturn, the sustainability of pension systems has aroused great concern for governments across the world. To better reflect the pressure of pension payments in the changing context, the paper aims to forecast the annual pension gap of the public pension system for urban employees in China. By the use of Cohort-component population projections and stochastic projection models, the distribution of flow-based annual pension gap in the next fifty years are estimated under basic assumptions. The results show that the pension gap continues to exist from 2017 and keeps expanding until 2070 without any policy reform. Sensitivity analyses of demographics and various combinations of policy parameters on the distribution of future pension gaps are displayed. Wider pension coverage with lower policy threshold is more likely to face larger long-term pension gap.

Keywords: pension sustainability; annual pension gap; public pension system for urban employees; stochastic modelling; sensitivity analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 O13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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