Estimation of Gridded Population and GDP Scenarios with Spatially Explicit Statistical Downscaling

Daisuke Murakami and Yoshiki Yamagata
Additional contact information
Daisuke Murakami: Department of Statistical Data Science, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10-3 Midori-cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan
Yoshiki Yamagata: Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 7, 1-18

Abstract: This study downscales the population and gross domestic product (GDP) scenarios given under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into 0.5-degree grids. Our downscale approach has the following features. (i) It explicitly considers spatial and socioeconomic interactions among cities, (ii) it utilizes auxiliary variables, including road network and land cover, (iii) it endogenously estimates the influence from each factor by a model ensemble approach, and (iv) it allows us to control urban shrinkage/dispersion depending on SSPs. It is confirmed that our downscaling results are consistent with scenario assumptions (e.g., concentration in SSP1 and dispersion in SSP3). Besides, while existing grid-level scenarios tend to have overly-smoothed population distributions in nonurban areas, ours does not suffer from the problem, and captures the difference in urban and nonurban areas in a more reasonable manner. Our gridded dataset, including population counts and gross productivities by 0.5 degree grids by 10 years, are available from http://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/population-and-gdp.html.

Keywords: shared socioeconomic pathways; downscale; spatial econometrics; population; GDP; ensemble learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/7/2106/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/7/2106/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:7:p:2106-:d:221146

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().