Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

Noora Veijalainen, Lauri Ahopelto, Mika Marttunen, Jaakko Jääskeläinen, Ritva Britschgi, Mirjam Orvomaa, Antti Belinskij and Marko Keskinen
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Noora Veijalainen: Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Lauri Ahopelto: Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Mika Marttunen: Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Jaakko Jääskeläinen: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aalto University, 02015 Espoo, Finland
Ritva Britschgi: Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Mirjam Orvomaa: Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Antti Belinskij: Finnish Environment Institute, Latokartanonkaari 11, FI-00790 Helsinki, Finland
Marko Keskinen: Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, 02015 Espoo, Finland

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 8, 1-26

Abstract: Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

Keywords: drought; hydrological modeling; water security; climate change; groundwater; water–energy–food security nexus; preparedness; Finland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:8:p:2450-:d:225982

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