Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain

Qi Hu, Xueqing Ma, Huayun He, Feifei Pan, Qijin He, Binxiang Huang and Xuebiao Pan
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Qi Hu: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Xueqing Ma: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Huayun He: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Feifei Pan: Department of Geography, University of North Texas, Denton, TX 76203, USA
Qijin He: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Binxiang Huang: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Xuebiao Pan: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 11, issue 9, 1-15

Abstract: Global warming and dimming/brightening have significant implications for crop systems and exhibit regional variations. It is important to clarify the changes in regional thermal and solar radiation resources and estimate the impacts on potential crop production spatially and temporally. Based on daily observation data during 1961–2015 in the North China Plain (NCP), the impacts of climate change associated with climate warming and global dimming/brightening on potential light–temperature productivity ( PTP ) of summer maize were assessed in this study. Results show that the NCP experienced a continuous warming and dimming trend in maize growing season during the past 55 years, and both ATT10 and solar radiation had an abrupt change in the mid-1990s. The period of 2000–2015 was warmer and dimmer than any other previous decade. Assuming the maize growing season remains unchanged, climate warming would increase PTP of summer maize by 4.6% over the period of 1961–2015, which mainly occurred in the start grain filling–maturity stage. On the other hand, as negative contribution value of solar radiation to the PTP was found in each stage, dimming would offset the increase of PTP due to warming climate, and lead to a 15.6% reduction in PTP in the past 55 years. This study reveals that the changes in thermal and solar radiation have reduced the PTP of summer maize in the NCP. However, the actual maize yield could benefit more from climate warming because solar radiation is not a limiting factor for the current low production level.

Keywords: climate warming; dimming; summer maize; potential production; North China Plain (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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