Probabilistic and Fuzzy Approaches for Estimating the Life Cycle Costs of Buildings under Conditions of Exposure to Risk

Edyta Plebankiewicz, Wiesław Meszek, Krzysztof Zima and Damian Wieczorek
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Edyta Plebankiewicz: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland
Wiesław Meszek: Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Poznan University of Technology, 60-965 Poznan, Poland
Krzysztof Zima: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland
Damian Wieczorek: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, 31-155 Krakow, Poland

Sustainability, 2019, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: The paper discusses issues related to life cycle costs in construction. Life cycle cost is a key element in the assessment of environmental sustainability in construction and it provides a tool for the economic evaluation of alternative sustainability options exhibiting different capital, operating costs or resource usage. The authors reviewed selected models of estimating life cycle costs in construction, drew attention to the complex mathematical models developed so far, namely those which take into account only financial risks and those which involve the possibility of the influence of other risk factors and described the main assumptions accompanying the original model for estimating the whole life costs of buildings, including: reasons for choosing theory of possibility, division and parametrization of input data. The aim of this paper is to confirm the validity of the model structure assumptions adopted by the authors by comparing the originally selected fuzzy approach to calculating life cycle costs taking into account the risk with the probabilistic approach, as well as indicating the domain in which the probabilistic approach will complement the fuzzy approach chosen by the authors. The paper presents a comparison analysis of two approaches used in the authors’ model, a fuzzy and a probabilistic approach, recommended by the ISO standard 15686-5:2008. The authors used the Oracle Crystall Ball software in their simulations.

Keywords: life cycle costs; whole life costs; risk; cost addition for risk; probabilistic approach; fuzzy approach; certainty level; buildings (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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