Costs and Benefits of Electrifying and Automating Bus Transit Fleets

Neil Quarles, Kara M. Kockelman and Moataz Mohamed
Additional contact information
Neil Quarles: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin—6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, Austin, TX 78712-1076, USA
Kara M. Kockelman: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin—6.9 E. Cockrell Jr. Hall, Austin, TX 78712-1076, USA
Moataz Mohamed: Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University JHE 301, Hamilton, ON L8S 4L7, Canada

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-15

Abstract: Diesel-powered, human-driven buses currently dominate public transit options in most U.S. cities, yet they produce health, environmental, and cost concerns. Emerging technologies may improve fleet operations by cost-effectively reducing emissions. This study analyzes both battery-electric buses and self-driving (autonomous) buses from both cost and qualitative perspectives, using the Capital Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s bus fleet in Austin, Texas. The study predicts battery-electric buses, including the required charging infrastructure, will become lifecycle cost-competitive in or before the year 2030 at existing U.S. fuel prices ($2.00/gallon), with the specific year depending on the actual rate of cost decline and the diesel bus purchase prices. Rising diesel prices would result in immediate cost savings before reaching $3.30 per gallon. Self-driving buses will reduce or eliminate the need for human drivers, one of the highest current operating costs of transit agencies. Finally, this study develops adoption schedules for these technologies. Recognizing bus lifespans and driver contracts, and assuming battery-electric bus adoption beginning in year-2020, cumulative break-even (neglecting extrinsic benefits, such as respiratory health) occurs somewhere between 2030 and 2037 depending on the rate of battery cost decline and diesel-bus purchase prices. This range changes to 2028 if self-driving technology is available for simultaneous adoption on new electric bus purchases beginning in 2020. The results inform fleet operators and manufacturers of the budgetary implications of converting a bus fleet to electric power, and what cost parameters allow electric buses to provide budgetary benefits over their diesel counterparts.

Keywords: self-driving bus; electric bus; transit costs; benefits of automation; benefits of electrification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/3977/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/10/3977/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:10:p:3977-:d:357303

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().