Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus

Weijing Ma, Lihong Meng, Feili Wei, Christian Opp and Dewei Yang
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Weijing Ma: Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, 35032 Marburg, Germany
Lihong Meng: College of Geography and Environment Project, Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou 341000, China
Feili Wei: Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Christian Opp: Faculty of Geography, Philipps-Universität Marburg, 35032 Marburg, Germany
Dewei Yang: School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-19

Abstract: Water scarcity has seriously threatened the sustainable development of Zhangjiakou City, an arid agricultural area in North China, and the ecological security of its neighboring areas. In this study, a system dynamics model is established based on variable sensitivity analysis and is employed to simulate water demand (2015–2035) in four designed alternative development scenarios in Zhangjiakou City. The results show that: (1) the variables related to irrigation farmland are the main driving factors of water demand, especially the area and water use quota. (2) The total water demand will rise continually in the current development scenario and economic priority scenario, and the proportion of agricultural water demand will drop to 67% and 63%, respectively. It will decline continually in the water-saving priority scenario and balanced development scenario, and the proportion of agricultural water demand will drop to 56% and 57%, respectively. (3) Water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP will fall to around 20 m 3 in 2035 in each scenario, indicating that the reduction of water demand only by slowing down economic growth cannot improve the efficiency of water use. The research results will be beneficial to extract feasible strategies and policies for balancing economic development and water conservation.

Keywords: water demand; sensitivity analysis; system dynamics; scenarios simulation; Zhangjiakou city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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