Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan

Moldir Rakhimova, Tie Liu, Sanim Bissenbayeva, Yerbolat Mukanov, Khusen Sh. Gafforov, Zhuldyzay Bekpergenova and Aminjon Gulakhmadov
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Moldir Rakhimova: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Tie Liu: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Sanim Bissenbayeva: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Yerbolat Mukanov: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Khusen Sh. Gafforov: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Zhuldyzay Bekpergenova: Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Aminjon Gulakhmadov: Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 12, 1-22

Abstract: The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.

Keywords: runoff; trend analysis; climate change; human activity; global circulation model; Buqtyrma River Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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