Methodological Study of Evaluating Future Lightweight Vehicle Scenarios and CO 2 Reduction Based on Life Cycle Assessment

Shinichirou Morimoto, Yanfei Cheng, Norio Mizukoshi and Kiyotaka Tahara
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Shinichirou Morimoto: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan
Yanfei Cheng: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan
Norio Mizukoshi: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan
Kiyotaka Tahara: National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology; Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8569, Japan

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 14, 1-16

Abstract: Changing the material composition of vehicles from steel to alternative materials, such as aluminum and magnesium, is being explored to reduce the weight of vehicles. Further, this change could lead to a significant reduction in vehicular CO 2 emissions. To analyze this relationship and estimate the CO 2 reduction effect over the life cycle, it is important to create potential scenarios by considering the logistics balance from material production to recycling. Therefore, this study aims to quantitatively predict the amount of renewable energy employed in vehicles, along with the various alternative materials used; further, the demand for aluminum and magnesium is predicted. These predictions are made via several multivariate analyses and a dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) to explore future scenarios. It is estimated that 65% of rolled aluminum can be obtained from a secondary alloy via closed-loop recycling of rolled products in a sustainable development scenario. However, 510 kt/year of end of life scrap aluminum must be imported from overseas to provide 90% of the secondary alloy required in cast and die cast parts. The overall CO 2 reduction amount is predicted to be 3920 kt/year in the 2040 sustainable development scenario. This study successfully demonstrated that combining SFA and life cycle assessment is efficient for quantitatively estimating the synergies of renewable energy implementation, vehicular weight reduction, and recycling.

Keywords: Sustainability; aluminum; magnesium; substance flow analysis; LCA; material recycling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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