Dynamic Sustainability Assessment Tool: Case Study of Green Biorefineries in Danish Agriculture

Lelde Timma, Elina Dace, Troels Kristensen and Marie Trydeman Knudsen
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Lelde Timma: Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
Elina Dace: Institute of Microbiology and Biotechnology, University of Latvia, 1 Jelgavas Street, LV-1004 Riga, Latvia
Troels Kristensen: Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark
Marie Trydeman Knudsen: Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, Blichers Allé 20, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-23

Abstract: In this work, a novel, dynamic sustainability assessment tool is presented and validated in a case study. This tool combines two methods—system dynamics (SD) and temporal soil carbon modelling. The case study for sustainability analysis of Danish agriculture and green biorefineries supply chains in Denmark is used. The development of the Danish agriculture sector is simulated and assessed in relation to the ecosystem’s carrying capacity until 2050, defined as 1.4 livestock units per hectare. The results show that under the current development, the agriculture sector would exceed this carrying capacity shortly after 2030. The results obtained from the dynamic sustainability assessment tool show a more precise and less optimistic projection of future development than the assessment using constant soil carbon modelling values only. The study, therefore, suggests that the use of the temporal aspects in the sustainability assessment should be included and further developed.

Keywords: agriculture modeling; biorefineries; ecosystem carrying capacity; impact assessment; temporal aspects; planetary boundaries; sustainability assessment; system dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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