Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options for Farm Performance Using Bio-Economic Models in Southwestern France

Johannes Schuler, Roos Adelhart Toorop, Magali Willaume, Anthony Vermue, Nicole Schläfke, Sandra Uthes, Peter Zander and Walter Rossing
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Johannes Schuler: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Roos Adelhart Toorop: Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
Magali Willaume: Université de Toulouse, INRAE, UMR AGIR, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
Anthony Vermue: Université de Toulouse, INRAE, UMR AGIR, F-31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
Nicole Schläfke: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Sandra Uthes: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Peter Zander: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) e.V., Eberswalder Str. 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Walter Rossing: Wageningen University & Research (WUR), Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-21

Abstract: Regional impact studies are needed to explore possible adaptation options to climate change. We estimated impacts and adaptation options for future scenarios that feature different assumptions regarding climate, cropping pattern and access to irrigation with two bio-economic farm models. Farm profit, soil organic matter balance and labor input are used as indicators of farm performance. The difference between the baseline and the alternative configurations computed by models is referred as adaptation potential, indicative of the adaptation options including the corresponding changes in cropping patterns. Our results show that as long as there is sufficient access to irrigation water, there is little incentive to change current practices, as farming is at the economic optimum, has a positive soil organic matter balance and labor requirements can be met. Conversely, if irrigation is no longer possible, drastic impacts occur, causing a need to sustainably adjust on-going farm practices. Adaptation through changed crop selection reduced losses to some extent. We conclude that the use of bio-economic models can assist in evaluating the qualitative findings of participatory studies by quantitatively assessing possible climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Strong impacts of climate change, however, cannot be offset by changes in cropping patterns and need further adaptation measures.

Keywords: climate change; bio-economic models; irrigation; adaptation; model comparison; Southern France (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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