Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050

Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Mathieu Castets, Adjoua Moise Famien and Christian Baron
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Dimitri Defrance: UMR ABSYS, INRAE, CIRAD, Montpellier SupAgro, CHEAM-IAMM, UMR SYSTEM, 34060 Montpellier, France
Benjamin Sultan: UMR ESPACE-DEV, Université Montpellier, IRD, Université Guyane, Université Réunion, Université Antilles, Université Avignon, 34090 Montpellier, France
Mathieu Castets: UMR TETIS, CIRAD, INRAE, Maison de la Télédétection, 34090 Montpellier, France
Adjoua Moise Famien: LOCEAN, Sorbonne Universités UPMC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, IPSL, 75006 Paris, France
Christian Baron: UMR TETIS, CIRAD, INRAE, Maison de la Télédétection, 34090 Montpellier, France

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 18, 1-19

Abstract: Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately three-fold until 2050. Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate modelling (16 models from CMIP5), crop yield (simulated by agronomic model, SARRA-O) and demographic evolution (provided by UN projection) under two future climatic scenarios. We simulate yield for the main crops in five countries in West Africa and estimate the population pressure on crop production to assess the number of available cereal production per capita. We found that, although uncertain, the African monsoon evolution leads to an increase of rainfall in Eastern Sahel and a decrease in Western Sahel under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario from IPCC, leading to the higher temperature increase by the end of the 21st century. With regard to the abundance of food for the inhabitants, all the scenarios in each country show that in 2050, local agricultural production will be below 50 kg per capita. This situation can have impact on crop import and regional migration.

Keywords: climate change; rainfed agriculture; West Africa; human vulnerability; climate change impact assessment; food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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