Prediction of Plant Phenological Shift under Climate Change in South Korea

Ha Kyung Lee, So Jeong Lee, Min Kyung Kim and Sang Don Lee
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Ha Kyung Lee: Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea
So Jeong Lee: Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea
Min Kyung Kim: Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea
Sang Don Lee: Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, College of Engineering, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, Korea

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 21, 1-14

Abstract: Information on the phenological shift of plants can be used to detect climate change and predict changes in the ecosystem. In this study, the changes in first flowering dates (FFDs) of the plum tree ( Prunus mume ), Korean forsythia ( Forsythia koreana ), Korean rosebay ( Rhododendron mucronulatum ), cherry tree ( Prunus yedoensis ), and peach tree ( Prunus persica ) in Korea during 1920–2019 were investigated. In addition, the changes in the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and their relationship with the FFDs were analyzed. The changes in the temperature and precipitation during the January–February–March period and the phenological shifts of all research species during 1920–2019 indicate that warm and dry spring weather advances the FFDs. Moreover, the temperature has a greater impact on this phenological shift than precipitation. Earlier flowering species are more likely to advance their FFDs than later flowering species. Hence, the temporal asynchrony among plant species will become worse with climate change. In addition, the FFDs in 2100 were predicted based on representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The difference between the predicted FFDs of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 for 2100 was significant; the effectiveness of greenhouse gas policies will presumably determine the degree of the plant phenological shift in the future. Furthermore, we presented the predicted FFDs for 2100.

Keywords: plant phenology; climate change; first flowering date; RCP scenario; temperature; asynchrony (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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