Data-Driven Approach to Understand the Mobility Patterns of the Portuguese Population during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Tiago Tamagusko and Adelino Ferreira
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Tiago Tamagusko: Research Center for Territory, Transports and Environment, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal
Adelino Ferreira: Research Center for Territory, Transports and Environment, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra, Portugal

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 22, 1-12

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019. Since then, it has spread to several countries, becoming classified as a pandemic. So far, there is no definitive treatment or vaccine, so the best solution is to prevent transmission between individuals through social distancing. However, it is not easy to measure the effectiveness of these distance measures. Therefore, this study uses data from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports to understand the Portuguese population’s mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, the Rt value was modeled for Portugal. In addition, the changepoint was calculated for the population mobility patterns. Thus, the mobility pattern change was used to understand the impact of social distance measures on the dissemination of COVID-19. As a result, it can be stated that the initial Rt value in Portugal was very close to 3, falling to values close to 1 after 25 days. Social isolation measures were adopted quickly. Furthermore, it was observed that public transport was avoided during the pandemic. Finally, until the emergence of a vaccine or an effective treatment, this is the new normal, and it must be understood that new patterns of mobility, social interaction, and hygiene must be adapted to this reality.

Keywords: COVID-19; mobility patterns; Rt; changepoint; modeling; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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