Using Logistic Regression to Identify Leading Factors to Prepare for an Earthquake Emergency during Daytime and Nighttime: The Case of Mass Earthquake Drills

Jaime Santos-Reyes
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Jaime Santos-Reyes: Grupo de Investigación, SARACS, SEPI-ESIME, ZAC, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, 07738 Mexico City, Mexico

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 23, 1-25

Abstract: Historical data have demonstrated that earthquakes can happen any time of the day and night. Drills may help communities to better prepare for such emergencies. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from 4 October to 20 November 2017, in Mexico City. The sample size was 2400. The addressed research questions were “what factors predict the likelihood that respondents would report that they agree on conducting mass evacuation drills: (a) any time of the day and (b) any time at night?” The logistic regression technique was employed to identify the factors leading to the outcome. In relation to (a), five variables were significantly associated with the outcome, i.e., age, frequency of drills, warning time, knowledge on what to do, and “perception vulnerability city”. Regarding (b), five variables were also significantly associated with the outcome variable, i.e., age, level of education, frequency of drills, negative emotions, and fear of house/building collapsing. More generally, several drills should be conducted any time of the day and night; further, 50% of them should be announced and 50% unannounced. Furthermore, the time of earthquake drills should be randomly selected. In this way, we may just match the spatial–temporal dimension of an earthquake emergency. It is hoped that the findings will lead to better preparedness of the residents of the capital city during an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: earthquake drills; daytime drills; nighttime drills; earthquake emergency; logistic regression; SASMEX (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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