Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity

Samira Shayanmehr, Shida Rastegari Henneberry, Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni and Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani
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Samira Shayanmehr: Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran
Shida Rastegari Henneberry: Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni: Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran
Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani: Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 23, 1-24

Abstract: The main purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of climatic change on potato yield and yield variability in Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Iran during 2041–2070 (2050s). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was performed in this study to downscale the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) and to obtain local climate projections under climate scenarios for a future period. The Just and Pope Production function was used to investigate the impacts of climatic change on potato yield. The results showed that the effects of future climatic change on potato yield and its variability would vary among the different AEZs. Potato yield would change in the range from −11% to 36% across different AEZs during the 2050s. Yield variability is expected to vary from −29% to 6%. Much more generally, the results indicated that the major potato producing zones would experience a decrease in mean potato yield in the presence of climate change. Our findings would help policymakers and planners in designing appropriate policies to allocate the lands under potato cultivation among different zones. These results also have important implications for adopting ecological zone-specific strategies to mitigate the reduction in potato yield and meet food security.

Keywords: agro-ecological zones; climate change; Just and Pope approach; potato yield; SDSM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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