Determining Extremes for Future Precipitation in South Korea Based on RCP Scenarios Using Non-Parametric SPI

Hemen Mark Butu, Yongwon Seo and Jeung Soo Huh
Additional contact information
Hemen Mark Butu: Department of Climate Change, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea
Yongwon Seo: Department of Civil Engineering, Yeungnam University, Gyeongsan 38541, Korea
Jeung Soo Huh: Department of Climate Change, Graduate School, Kyungpook National University, Daegu 41566, Korea

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-26

Abstract: Historical, downscaled and projected data for six cities in South Korea were collected and analyzed using non-parametric Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) across the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. SPI results were utilized in further analyses: intensity, decadal frequency, and temporal shifts. Non-parametric SPI was used as it produces more reliable results in terms of their statistical, spatial and temporal characteristics. RCP4.5 was taken to represent concentrations under the current emissions trajectory, while RCP8.5 represents the high-end scenario. Findings suggest that extreme precipitation events are more likely to increase in number than extreme drought across all timescales and RCPs. Variability was observed to increase when comparing SPI obtained from actual, measured and gridded precipitation. More extreme droughts are expected under RCP8.5 forcing as are the occurrence of multiyear droughts and extreme wet events relative to RCP4.5. A seasonal shift in extreme precipitation of up to 3 months earlier was observed. Generally, the period between 2080 and 2100 holds the highest probability to host extremely rare and persistent events.

Keywords: standardized precipitation index; hydrologic extreme; extreme drought; extreme precipitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/3/963/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/3/963/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:3:p:963-:d:314065

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().