Integration of Boosted Regression Trees and Cellular Automata—Markov Model to Predict the Land Use Spatial Pattern in Hotan Oasis

Shufang Wang, Xiyun Jiao, Liping Wang, Aimin Gong, Honghui Sang, Mohamed Khaled Salahou and Liudong Zhang
Additional contact information
Shufang Wang: College of Water Conservancy, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China
Xiyun Jiao: College of Agricultural Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Liping Wang: College of Water Conservancy, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China
Aimin Gong: College of Water Conservancy, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China
Honghui Sang: College of Agricultural Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Mohamed Khaled Salahou: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
Liudong Zhang: College of Water Conservancy, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, China

Sustainability, 2020, vol. 12, issue 4, 1-13

Abstract: The simulation and prediction of the land use changes is generally carried out by cellular automata—Markov (CA-Markov) model, and the generation of suitable maps collection is subjective in the simulation process. In this study, the CA-Markov model was improved by the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to simulate land use to make the model objectively. The weight of ten driving factors of the land use changes was analyzed in BRT, in order to produce the suitable maps collection. The accuracy of the model was verified. The outcomes represent a match of over 84% between simulated and actual land use in 2015, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.89, which was satisfactory to approve the calibration process. The land use of Hotan Oasis in 2025 and 2035 were predicted by means of this hybrid model. The area of farmland, built-up land and water body in Hotan Oasis showed an increasing trend, while the area of forestland, grassland and unused land continued to show a decreasing trend in 2025 and 2035. The government needs to formulate measures to improve the utilization rate of water resources to meet the growth of farmland, and need to increase ecological environment protection measures to curb the reduction of grass land and forest land for the ecological health.

Keywords: land use change; CA-Markov model; boosted regression trees; Hotan Oasis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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